Wang et al. 2024 (Aaron Wang, Aarav Mahendru, and Evan Lee)

Background

With the closing of World War II and the ousting of the Japanese occupation of mainland China, the world’s most populous area began the process of forming a governing state. However, at that time, there were two opposing factions vying for power. Before the Japanese occupation, the Kuomingtan (KMT) was the ruling party. However, that standing was being challenged by a revolutionary movement led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that soon led to a bloody civil war following Japan’s removal. Called the Chinese Civil War, the CCP emerged victorious and the KMT fled to the island of Formosa, which is now known as Taiwan. 

During this civil war, the US was already involved in the conflict. Mainly supporting the KMT, the US primarily acted as a mediator and tried to get peace talks underway. However, with the continued resistance of the KMT to US plan’s the US eventually deserted its role as a peace negotiator and withdrew support (Britannica).

After the CCP established power and the KMT had cemented its presence on Taiwan, Washington-Taipei relations were off to a rocky start. Starting in the 1950s, tensions were extremely high in the Taiwan strait as well as the whole of Eastern Asia in general. With the communist victory in 1949, the communist obviously sought to eliminate the KMT and hold its leaders accountable for their purported war crimes. The region was a ticking time bomb. 

The Taiwan crises

Background

With the newly established Taiwan, known as the Republic of China (ROC), tensions were running high. At first, the US refused to support ROC if the PRC ended up invading. However, with the outbreak of the Korean War and the subsequent Chinese intervention, the US realigned its security interests and decided to support the defense of Taiwan both militarily and economically. 

The first Taiwan crisis

In 1954, the PRC acted on its desire to reunite China and eliminate the KMT. Occurring in a backdrop of high tensions in the east, especially with the recently signed armistice that paused the Korean War indefinitely, the PRC declared Taiwan as its own. In the August of 1954, the KMT deployed troops to Jinmen and Mazu, islands that were close to mainland China but under the control of the KMT, to reinforce the islands. The PRC perceived this as a threat, and began a bombardment of those islands (Elleman). As the US was extremely sensitive to communist threats at the time, the Formosa Resolution was passed which authorized the use of lethal force against the PRC. As the situation deteriorated, Eisenhower seriously entertained the idea of using nuclear weapons against strategic PRC targets, even gaining the KMT’s consent as well as the Joint Chief of Staff’s authorization to use nuclear weapons (Mastro). With the Soviet Union refusing to commit nuclear forces to the defense of the PRC, the PRC opted for negotiations and subsequently the crises deescalated. Furthermore, in order to strengthen US commitment in the region, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was formed. However, the fundamental issues that underlie the conflict remained unresolved. 

The second Taiwan Strait crisis

In 1958, the second Taiwan Strait crisis began with the bombardment of the Jinmen and Mazu Islands. However, with the US supporting the islands in the form of resupplies, the CCP was unable to gain much of an advantage (Britannica). US support was, as of 1958, unwavering. However that was soon to change. 

US-PRC Normalizations

In the early 1970s, the PRC began to grow more distant from the Soviet Union due to Soviet efforts to contain Chinese ambitions. Furthermore, the US and Soviet relations deteriorated, which led to Nixon, the current president then, to consider improving relations with the PRC. Furthermore, the PRC also saw that by improving relations with the US, they could stave off Soviet pressure.  As a result, communication and negotiations were established. Furthermore, a friendly interaction between two ping pong players accelerated public acceptance of said relations and soon, relations were improving rapidly. Soon, even Nixon visited China. As relations steadily improved, it was announced that diplomatic relations would be established with the PRC soon. 

On the first of January, the US and the PRC announced the normalization of relations, with the US also revoking its recognition as Taiwan as the rightful China. Trade and economic relations between the two countries grew and partnerships in multiple fields prospered. 

However, with the election of Ronald Reagan, relations deteriorated due to Reagan’s support for the ROC as well his staunch opposition of communism. Ronald Reagan outlined the Six Assurances, which implicitly supported the arms trade with the ROC as well as implicitly recognizing Taiwan’s independence. Although relations were strained during this period, relations still remained relatively warm compared to the cold attitudes the two countries held before the start of talks. 

Taiwan was negatively impacted by these talks, as with the normalization US-PRC relations led to the sidelining of ROC’s position in the international community. The ROC’s position in the UN was replaced by the PRC and their independence was no longer recognized by their biggest ally. 

Additional straining

With the Tiananmen massacre in 1989, the US was shocked by the human rights abuses and relations took a dive. The US halted arms sales to the PRC as well as a cooling in economic activity between the two countries. 

Third and Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis 

In 1995, in response to the president of the ROC being allowed to visit the US, the PRC began conducting large scale military exercises and launching missiles. Since the previous crises, the Chinese military had grown substantially and the US recognized it as a threat. In response, despite cooled Taiwanese relations, the US still took action to deter and protect Taiwan from potential invasion. The US deployed multiple carrier strike groups to project US military might, and the PRC subsequently backed down. The PRC learned from this exchange and devoted more resources to modernize its military force (Britannica). 

In 2022, with the visit of Nancy Pelosi, a high ranking member in congress, sparked Chinese outrage. As a result, large scale military exercises resumed. With many simulation of air sorties and a spike in naval maneuvers, tensions were high in the region. The US ensured that military might was still projected, but with the modernized military capability of the PRC, both sides acted cautiously. However, this crisis hasn’t been completely resolved yet, with continued and intermittent moves made by the PRC to provoke the ROC. 

Recent politicians

Under current President Biden, US commitment to Taiwan was very defined, with explicit rhetoric that the US would move to defend Taiwan from armed invasion. Unlike his predecessors, who were unclear about whether the US would defend Taiwan, Biden’s strategic clarity provides Taiwan with some degree of confidence and may empower the ROC to take riskier moves. However, as Biden is set to serve only one term, US policy towards Taiwan could shift significantly. 

Harris

The democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential election, Harris has demonstrated an adherence to US strategic ambiguity on the issue of Taiwan. She has not gone as far as Biden in declaring outright military support, but this strategic ambiguity may still serve to deter an invasion (Domino Theory).

Trump

Trump, however, marks a break from traditional politics. With a campaign built on breaking away from tradition, Trump’s foreign policy deviated drastically from predecessor. Although keeping strategic ambiguity on volatile issues such as Taiwan, Trump’s previous actions show a trend that leans towards isolationism. With Trump making rhetorical remarks about withdrawing support from NATO, it’s clear that Trump may not defend Taiwan, due to his quasi-policy of non-intervention. 

“Chinese Civil War.” Encyclopædia Britannica, www.britannica.com/event/Chinese-Civil-War/Nationalist-collapse-and-the-establishment-of-the-Peoples-Republic-of-China-1949. Accessed 24 Aug. 2024.

Elleman, Bruce A. “The First Taiwan Strait Crisis, 1954–55.” Taiwan Straits Standoff: 70 Years of PRC–Taiwan Cross-Strait Tensions, Anthem Press, 2021, pp. 43-64, www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/taiwan-straits-standoff/first-taiwan-strait-crisis-195455/50F6538D7559B4EAB02840426E9D7293. Accessed 24 Aug. 2024.

“How Would Kamala Harris Approach Taiwan?” Domino Theory, dominotheory.com/how-would-kamala-harris-approach-taiwan/. Accessed 24 Aug. 2024.

Kulacki, Gregory. “Nuclear Weapons in the Taiwan Strait Part I.” Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, vol. 3, no. 2, 2020, pp. 310-341. Taylor & Francis Online, https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2020.1834963. Accessed 24 Aug. 2024.

“Taiwan Strait Crises.” Encyclopædia Britannica, www.britannica.com/event/Taiwan-Strait-crises. Accessed 24 Aug. 2024.